He only needs one draw to be good, two makes him great but you are probably averaging 0.3ish draws per Sram cast in a deck with 3 targets
Illustrated by James Zapata Standard Not Legal Alchemy Not Legal Pioneer Legal Historic Not Legal Modern Legal Brawl Not Legal Legacy Legal Comp
That is to say, during your main phase when the stack is empty
Kiora, the Crashing Wave In Commander, Kiora, the Crashing Wave is often a sorcery speed Growth Spiral for 4 mana that leaves a planeswalker behind
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Where the binomial distribution tells us the probability of getting a specific number of successes with replacement (i.e., equivalent with shuffling your deck, revealing the top card, noting whether its a land or not, then shuffling again and repeating), the hypergeometric distribution takes into account that card draws are, in fact, not independent (i.e., telling us the probability of getting a specific number of successes without replacement, where cards arent reinserted into the deck after being counted as a success or not)